Quantify your edge.
Win rate, average win, average loss → expected value per trade.
INPUTS
%
How often you close green. Most discretionary traders sit 35–55%.
$
Mean $ on your winning closes (not the biggest one).
$
Mean $ lost on your stops. Positive number.
Multiply expectancy by this to forecast a sample.
TRY ONE
RESULT
Expected $ / trade+$35.00
R-multiple (avg)2.00R
Breakeven win rate33.3%
Loss rate55.0%
Projected over 100 trades+$3,500.00
HOW IT WORKS
Expectancy is the one number that tells you whether a strategy is worth running. E = W × avgWin − L × avgLoss— positive means you make money on average, negative means you don't. The trap most discretionary traders fall into: chasing high win rate (60%+) with crappy R:R (0.5:1), which produces lower expectancy than 35% win rate at 3:1 R:R. Project the expectancy over your real trade count (300/year for a swing trader, 30/day for a scalper) to see whether the edge is meaningful or you're trading on noise.
FAQ
What is trading expectancy?
The average $ result you should expect per trade if your strategy keeps performing the way it has been. Formula: E = (win% × avgWin) − (loss% × avgLoss).
Can I have positive expectancy with a sub-50% win rate?
Absolutely. A 35% win rate at 3:1 R:R is +0.40R per trade — meaningfully positive. Most discretionary traders chase win rate and ignore R:R, which is exactly backwards.
How many trades do I need to know if my expectancy is real?
At least 100 trades for noisy strategies, 300+ for noisier ones (intraday). Anything less is unfortunately just luck — the variance dominates.
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